Exploring the impacts of two Brexit scenarios on Dutch agricultural trade flows

Samenvatting

This report provides a quantification of the effects of two possible post-Brexit trade scenarios on Dutch agricultural trade. Dutch exports to the UK and the rest of the world will be affected only marginally under a Free Trade Agreement between the EU and the UK. A WTO scenario will have more yet still relatively modest impacts on Dutch exports. With total agricultural exports slightly declining, Dutch exports of pig meat and tomatoes to the UK even increase as a result of Dutch price competitiveness at the UK market and greater price responsiveness of production (and exports) in other EU MS countries. The agricultural production value in the Netherlands will decline by around 2%, mainly because of declining prices that are the result of price pressure at the EU market as a consequence of Brexit-related trade distortions