Project

Quick scan locations for highest-potential greenhouse development in the world

There is increasing demand for greenhouses worldwide as governments encourage local, safe and sustainable food production. Climate change and scarcity of water and other key resources are adding to the trend towards greenhouses.

The project aims to develop a world map of the highest suitability for greenhouses, broken down by mid-tech and high-tech greenhouses, by performing a quick scan, which means synthesis and application of existing knowledge and data. Of the countries with the highest potential, more detailed maps are
shown.

This whitepaper is commissioned by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (Rijksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland (RVO)) and funded by the European Community. Dutch Green Delta (DGD) and some of their partners contributed with their expertise and experiential knowledge.

Abstract

The total area of covered crops is very difficult to indicate because there are no clear definitions and hence no uniform data. This study estimates approximately 700,000 hectares of protected horticulture worldwide, of which approximately 53,000 hectares are high-tech greenhouses. This is in line with other literature sources. China provides the greatest uncertainty in data.

Based on the analysis of area suitability, USA is the country with the highest relative score for high-tech, followed by France, Germany, UK and Ukraine. For mid-tech, the USA and France are also the countries with the highest relative score, followed by India, Libya, and Brazil.

Based on the highest market opportunities for greenhouses explored for the production and sales of tomato, the top 5 countries are Germany, the Netherlands, France, the USA, and Spain.

Based on the presence of existing greenhouses, Mexico is the country with the highest surface for high-tech, followed by the Netherlands, Turkey, Belgium and Germany. For mid-tech surfaces the top 5 countries are China, Turkey, Spain, Republic of Korea, and Egypt.

Based on the combination of the 3 analyses above, the top 10 countries with the strongest expected growth in high-tech greenhouses are: the USA, France, Spain, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Italy, Japan, Turkey, and China. When we differentiate these countries in 3 categories we identify:

  • Emerging countries: the USA, Poland, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and the UK.
  • Conversion countries from mid-tech to high-tech greenhouses: Spain, France, China, Japan, India, and South Korea.
  • Countries that already have areas of high-tech greenhouses: Germany, the Netherlands, Turkey, Belgium, and Mexico.

The quick scan approach consists of 3 components:

  1. Area potential: Mapping the areas with the greatest potential for greenhouses based on climate, soil, infrastructure, land use. The Global Detector GIS tool is used for this purpose. In 3 interactive workshops with about 5 experts from stakeholders, knowledge and geographical data are exchanged and the sub-maps are validated and adapted (e.g. climate or infrastructure) and the final map is created: a product developed by all participants.
  2. Market potential: mapping market opportunities for greenhouses by analysing import, production and consumption of tomato in conjunction with land aspects such as ease of doing business, corruption, quality infrastructure.
  3. Current potential of greenhouses: mapping the current presence of greenhouses in the countries through desk research and retrieval of information from Dutch agricultural councils.

The results of these 3 components are combined to create a top 5 countries for high-tech greenhouses, looking at the growth of the existing greenhouse area, the conversion from mid-tech to high-tech greenhouses and new emerging countries with no greenhouse history.

We need you!

We are very keen to follow up on this survey. For that, we need you as a business community. Are you interested in a more in-depth analysis with:

  • Additional growth rates for key countries;
  • Additional national policies of key countries, level of local knowledge available, level of investment;
  • Additional checks on the availability of improved datasets on humidity;
  • Impacts of climate change;
  • Improved interactive interface on data accessibility;
  • Differentiated analysis for greenhouse builders, technology installation companies and suppliers of seeds and starting materials.

Or do you have other requirements or suggestions? If so, please contact the project leader!